Sunday, October 22, 2006

Captain Holly's Election Predictions

My life is finally slowing down to the point where I can blog again, and of course my priority is the upcoming elections. So here's my take on what will happen November 7th.

First off, I don't really believe the Media reports of imminent Democrat victory. I heard those same reports back in 2004 and 2002, and they were waaay off. Indeed, it would appear that many pollsters either made the same assumptions when analyzing their data or purposely modified their results to create a new reality. It was very satisfying when they obviously got it wrong.

Having said that, it doesn't mean I believe the Republicans are in a good position. I can sympathize with alienated conservatives; many Republicans in the House are bumbling, feckless, or corrupt (Hastert, Foley, Ney, Cunningham) while many in the Senate are ambitious, preening narcissists (McCain, Graham, Warner, Hagel). Had they stuck to their principles instead of acting like Democrats, they'd be winning in a cakewalk.

But I simply cannot understand the logic that says conservatives should stay home this fall and let the Democrats win in order to "teach the Republicans a lesson". That's roughly akin to me allowing my two year-old daughter to get hit by a car in order to "teach her a lesson" about playing in the street: she'll get the message alright, but at an unacceptable cost.

Nevertheless, such thinking seems to be quite popular among conservatives, so I'll prepare my response now for cutting and pasting later. In about six months, when Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid announce sweeping new gun control legislation, or massive tax increases, or impeachment proceedings against President Bush and the "stay at home" conservatives inevitably start howling, I'll simply say: STOP WHINING. This is what YOU wanted. YOU helped make this bed; NOW SLEEP IN IT.

Actually, I don't believe it will come to that. The Republicans will keep control of both Houses of Congress, but just barely. I predict they will lose 7-10 seats in the House, 3-4 in the Senate. And hopefully, the Republican leadership will take notice of their close call and change their ways. But it would be far more effective to remove bad Republicans in the primaries, instead of replacing them with Democrats.

UPDATE: Even though he's not really a conservative, add Mr. Quick to the list of those who seem to believe that a Nancy Pelosi-led House would be more amenable to reducing spending or more effective at fighting the War on Terror. It will be interesting to see what he will be saying next June.

"Right-Wing Hack" Instapundit seems to be keeping a clear head about things. St. Andrew the Only True Conservative proves once again (as if we needed any further proof) that to him it's all about Teh Gays.


Post a Comment

<< Home