Monday, June 19, 2006

An upset in the making

A prediction: Congressman Chris Cannon (R) of the Utah 3rd Congressional District will lose his primary election on June 27th. This is why.

If you're going to bring up the subject of illegal immigration, it doesn't help to have one of the most-disliked immigrant activists in Utah -- the man who organized pro-illegal demonstrations in Salt Lake City last April -- to publicly come to your defense and attack your anti-illegal immigration opponent.

Cannon might have won had Tony Yapias not started yapping.


At 2:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We will see who has the last laugh on this. Yapias was just yapping about Jacob having his own "guest worker program" and is a hypocrate for taking immigration without checking his closet firt.

At 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jacob's assistance to a ward member who was here legally is old news. The involved Chilean has responded that he was always legal and nothing improper or illegal was done. already been dealt with and Jacob come off looking compassionate and anti-illegal alien. However, Cannon is a pretty good campaigner, and though I would like to see him lose, I'm not at all convinced he will.

At 10:02 PM, Blogger Captain Holly said...

I think this latest episode reveals that Cannon is in big trouble. He wouldn't have tried such a risky move unless he felt he had to. I haven't seen any polls on the race lately but I'm sure Cannon's own internal numbers show him to be vulnerable.

It doesn't really matter, though. Those who oppose illegal immigration have already made their point emphatically with the national Republican leadership. When the incumbent in the safest Republican district in the nation is forced into a primary solely due to his stance on illegal immigration, you can bet every other Congresscritter has taken notice. Perhaps that explains why the Republican House leadership has already declared the Senate's amnesty plan dead on arrival.

Cannon would have to trounce Jacob by at least a two- or three-to-one margin in order to minimize the immigration issue. Even then, no Republican (or conservative Democrat; remember, Matheson voted for the House plan too) could afford to alienate a quarter to a third of his base in a close election.

But I don't think Cannon, if he wins, will be able to put immigration behind him. I personally think it will be a close contest. Even if Cannon wins it will be seen as a loss.

Oh, and don't underestimate the amount of resentment towards Yapias. For Republican voters who care about immigration, an endorsement from Yapias is roughly equivalent to one from Hillary Clinton.


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