I didn't believe Gallup's exit polls, either.

Over at Drudge I found this item about Gallup's most recent polling on gun ownership in America. And as usual, there are alot of questions about the accuracy of the poll.

The numbers of guns and gun owners in the US are exceedingly difficult to determine. There is no Federal system of registration that keeps track of gun owners (at least there shouldn't be; one never knows what goes on at the ATFE) and most states don't have mandatory gun registration, either. So Gallup is relying on the persons they interview to tell them the truth, and then extrapolating the numbers nationwide. And with a controversial and emotional subject like gun ownership, there is bound to be alot of error.

For example, there are plenty of people who own a few guns but think nothing of it. I would categorize these persons as the "historical" or "custodial" type of gun owners. They own one or two guns as heirlooms but do not shoot them, so when Gallup or any other polling company calls they either forget they own them or do not consider themselves to be gun owners. Considering that it was not illegal for servicemen in WWII to bring home captured weapons, there are probably millions of widows and children of the GI generation who have an old Mauser in the attic but do not know about it.

My late father may have been in this category: He owned an old .22 magnum rifle that had been given to him by his brother. Since he hadn't shot it in years, he might not have identified himself as a gun owner had a pollster called and asked him.

Another problem any pollster faces when asking about gun ownership is the stigma that is attached to it in some parts of the country. Some gun owners in urban areas of "Blue" America might not be too comfortable admitting they own a gun, even though it may be perfectly legal for them to do so. Some live in areas where gun ownership is either outright illegal or heavily regulated, and they might be justifiably fearful of falling victim to an undercover sting or being turned into local police by the pollster. Not surprisingly, gun ownership in urban areas and "Blue" states is lower than in "Red" states.

Finally, there is another factor: Gun owners tend to be more protective of their privacy. I know if someone called out of the blue and asked me how many guns I owned, I probably would answer "none" or "None of your damned business". I would have no idea if the person is a bona fide pollster or a burglar checking out my house, and I'm certainly not going to give out any information to make it easier for someone to rob me.

Actually, Gallup's own data support this idea. In the article we read:

From 1959 through 1993, an average of 47% of Americans reported having a gun in their homes. Since that time, household gun ownership has dropped to an average of 40%.

Hmmm. Gun ownership as a percentage of population remained steady until 1993. What happened in 1993? For those who can't remember, 1993 was the year Bill Clinton took office. That was also the year the Branch Davidians were massacred by the ATF/FBI at Waco, as well as the year that the Brady Law came into effect. The year 1993 marked the beginning of an all-out assault by the Gun Control Lobby and their Democrat allies on gun owners. It's no wonder many of them "went underground".

Well, not quite. They resurfaced in 1994, and every two years since then, to vote to keep their guns. If you want an accurate poll on the number of gun owners in America, just look at the 2004 election. There are far more gun owners than Gallup or even the Republican party realizes.

And they vote, too.

UPDATE: Those brave few who read this blog may have noticed this grammatical error in the above post:

Some live in areas where gun ownership is either outright illegal or heavily regulated, and they might be justifiably fearful of falling victim to an undercover sting or being turned into local police by the pollster.

I was going to simply correct it and say nothing, but this mental picture was just too funny:

Pollster: Do you own guns?

Homeowner: Why, yes I do.

Pollster: Okay, you're a local policeman *bing*

Well, at least I thought it was funny....