Friday, March 25, 2005

Great Minds and All That

So I'm reading Instapundit today, and I come across this link to a StrategyPage post by James Dunnigan about the economic impact on China if the ChiComs ever went to war with the US over Taiwan. And this statement caught my attention:

If China goes to war with the United States, the first impact would not be bombs, but an end to exports to the United States. Putting over a hundred million Chinese out of work would have a larger impact than any bombing campaign. Taiwanese companies also control over $50 billion of economic activity in China. Taking Taiwan, in one piece, would add about ten percent to China's GDP. But the loss of American markets would be far greater. (emphasis added)

Hmmmm. That sounds familiar. So I went looking around and sure enough, I found a comment I made on a discussion thread at Kim du Toit's Nation of Riflemen Forum over a week ago, wherein I expressed the conviction that China would not invade Taiwan:

Why? Money. Taiwan is China's biggest investor; the US is China's biggest market. If there's a war, China's economy, and that of East Asia, will go into the tank. And 100 million suddenly unemployed Chinese peasants are much more worrisome to Beijing than an independent Taiwan. (emphasis added)

Great minds do indeed think alike.

Mr. Dunnigan, I don't mind that you might have taken some inspiration from my comments, but could you see your way to giving The Warren a link? We need all the help we can get.


At 9:18 PM, Blogger Rosemary said...

Way to go, Captain Holly! I read that, but I disagreed with you. They would much rather just kill them than feed them. Look at what we are doing to Terri, and some low lifes try to justify it. Why would not the Red ChiComms do the same? They do not think in terms of money. They think in terms of power and saving face. I hope you are correct and I am wrong, however!

At 9:21 PM, Blogger Rosemary said...

Oh, thank you for stopping by. I have the Warren under MilBlogs. Are you aware that I could not link to you through your name? I did something to someone by accident. When I filled out the name and stuff, I put my blog with .com.. I had too many dots! Oh well. Just thought you'd like to know. It will help you with your traffic.

At 3:31 AM, Blogger Chris said...

This is from a rambling rant I posted at on Feb. 2, '05. Can I get a link for this? Just kidding, but the thought is along the same lines as your excellent post:

China's economic growth will soon breed more money than they will know what to do with, other than buy the rest of the world. This makes them the largest repressive Capitalist country in the world. Wal Mart is their biggest consumer of goods, and is known for imposing conditions on it's suppliers. Do you think Wal-Mart's existence could be justified to the Wal-Mart haters if they brought democracy to China?

At 5:28 AM, Blogger Captain Holly said...

I think alot of people downplay the conflict among the Chinese leadership when it comes to capitalism and economic growth. China is being stretched between two incompatible ideologies, capitalism and communism, and they're going to snap, soon.

They don't want to invade Taiwan, because that would have devastating economic consequences. OTOH, they can't let Taiwan become a free nation, because that would inspire their own pro-democracy movement.

Within the next 5 years, there will be a crisis that will decide whether China becomes an imperialist dictatorship, or a liberal democracy.


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